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Atlético Monzón vs Cuarte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Atlético Monzón
Atlético Monzón
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cuarte
Cuarte
5/10/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 34

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Atlético Monzón40%
×Draw30%
Cuarte29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Monzón
1.12
Cuarte
0.91

Atlético Monzón creates 23% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 112 away

creates per match

Atlético Monzón
1.28
Cuarte
1.08

allows per match

Atlético Monzón
0.74
Cuarte
0.96

finishing

Atlético Monzón+0.00on par
Cuarte+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Monzón ↓

Cuarte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Atlético Monzón or draw
71%
Atlético Monzón or Cuarte
70%
Draw or Cuarte
60%

Winning margin

Atlético Monzón wins by 2+
17%
Cuarte wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atlético Monzón 1+ goals
67%
Atlético Monzón 2+ goals
31%
Atlético Monzón 3+ goals
10%
Cuarte 1+ goals
60%
Cuarte 2+ goals
23%
Cuarte 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Atlético Monzón (draw refunded)
58%
Cuarte (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Monzón at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.74 · 116 matches

Cuarte away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.96 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Monzón attack 1.28 + Cuarte defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.12

Cuarte attack 1.08 + Atlético Monzón defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atlético Monzón scores more
40%
level
30%
Cuarte scores more
29%

Atlético Monzón at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atlético Monzón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Atlético Monzón 1–1 Cuarte

Atlético Monzón and Cuarte drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on May 10, 2026.