Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cuando Cubango vs 1º de Maio — Girabola 2019

Cuando Cubango
Cuando Cubango
CANC
00:00
1º de Maio
1º de Maio
9/18/2019GirabolaGirabola · Round 4Estádio Municipal de Menongue (Menongue)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cuando Cubango48%
×Draw30%
1º de Maio22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuando Cubango
1.22
1º de Maio
0.74

Cuando Cubango creates 65% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 18 away

creates per match

Cuando Cubango
0.82
1º de Maio
0.72

allows per match

Cuando Cubango
0.76
1º de Maio
1.61

finishing

Cuando Cubango+0.00on par
1º de Maio+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuando Cubango ↓

1º de Maio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Cuando Cubango or draw
78%
Cuando Cubango or 1º de Maio
70%
Draw or 1º de Maio
52%

Winning margin

Cuando Cubango wins by 2+
21%
1º de Maio wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cuando Cubango 1+ goals
70%
Cuando Cubango 2+ goals
34%
Cuando Cubango 3+ goals
12%
1º de Maio 1+ goals
52%
1º de Maio 2+ goals
17%
1º de Maio 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cuando Cubango (draw refunded)
68%
1º de Maio (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuando Cubango at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.76 · 51 matches

1º de Maio away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuando Cubango attack 0.82 + 1º de Maio defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.22

1º de Maio attack 0.72 + Cuando Cubango defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cuando Cubango scores more
48%
level
30%
1º de Maio scores more
22%

Cuando Cubango at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cuando Cubango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cuando Cubango vs 1º de Maio — Match Preview

Cuando Cubango face 1º de Maio on September 18, 2019 in this Girabola fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Cuando Cubango host 1º de Maio at Estádio Municipal de Menongue (Menongue).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.