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1º de Maio vs Cuando Cubango — Girabola 2019

1º de Maio
1º de Maio
CANC
00:00
Cuando Cubango
Cuando Cubango
1/11/2020GirabolaGirabola · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

1º de Maio47%
×Draw28%
Cuando Cubango25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1º de Maio
1.34
Cuando Cubango
0.90

1º de Maio creates 49% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 50 away

creates per match

1º de Maio
1.18
Cuando Cubango
0.80

allows per match

1º de Maio
1.00
Cuando Cubango
1.50

finishing

1º de Maio+0.00on par
Cuando Cubango+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1º de Maio ↓

Cuando Cubango →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

1º de Maio or draw
75%
1º de Maio or Cuando Cubango
72%
Draw or Cuando Cubango
53%

Winning margin

1º de Maio wins by 2+
22%
Cuando Cubango wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

1º de Maio 1+ goals
74%
1º de Maio 2+ goals
39%
1º de Maio 3+ goals
15%
Cuando Cubango 1+ goals
59%
Cuando Cubango 2+ goals
23%
Cuando Cubango 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

1º de Maio (draw refunded)
65%
Cuando Cubango (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1º de Maio at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

Cuando Cubango away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.50 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1º de Maio attack 1.18 + Cuando Cubango defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

Cuando Cubango attack 0.80 + 1º de Maio defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

1º de Maio scores more
47%
level
28%
Cuando Cubango scores more
25%

1º de Maio at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "1º de Maio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1º de Maio face Cuando Cubango (Girabola)

Girabola returns with 1º de Maio hosting Cuando Cubango. Match starts January 11, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.