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CSM Reşiţa vs Alexandria — Liga II 2018

CSM Reşiţa
CSM Reşiţa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Alexandria
Alexandria
11/25/2023Liga IILiga II · Round 14Stadionul Mircea Chivu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

CSM Reşiţa51%
×Draw27%
Alexandria22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSM Reşiţa
1.43
Alexandria
0.84

CSM Reşiţa creates 70% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 13 away

creates per match

CSM Reşiţa
1.40
Alexandria
0.46

allows per match

CSM Reşiţa
1.22
Alexandria
1.46

finishing

CSM Reşiţa+0.00on par
Alexandria+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSM Reşiţa ↓

Alexandria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CSM Reşiţa or draw
78%
CSM Reşiţa or Alexandria
73%
Draw or Alexandria
49%

Winning margin

CSM Reşiţa wins by 2+
25%
Alexandria wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CSM Reşiţa 1+ goals
76%
CSM Reşiţa 2+ goals
42%
CSM Reşiţa 3+ goals
17%
Alexandria 1+ goals
57%
Alexandria 2+ goals
21%
Alexandria 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CSM Reşiţa (draw refunded)
70%
Alexandria (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSM Reşiţa at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

Alexandria away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSM Reşiţa attack 1.40 + Alexandria defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.43

Alexandria attack 0.46 + CSM Reşiţa defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

CSM Reşiţa scores more
51%
level
27%
Alexandria scores more
22%

CSM Reşiţa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "CSM Reşiţa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSM Reşiţa vs Alexandria

CSM Reşiţa beat Alexandria 3-1 in Liga II on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Mircea Chivu in Reşiţa.