Alexandria 2–4 CSM Reşiţa: Result & Stats | Liga II

Alexandria

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

CSM Reşiţa

5/3/2024

Liga II · Relegation Round - 6Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Alexandria28%

×Draw26%

CSM Reşiţa47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlexandriaExpected goals in this matchCSM Reşiţa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.52

Alexandria

1.11

CSM Reşiţa

1.52

CSM Reşiţa creates 37% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 64 away

0.75

creates per match

1.22

1.83

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Alexandria

0.75

CSM Reşiţa

1.22

allows per match

Alexandria

1.83

CSM Reşiţa

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alexandria+0.00on par

CSM Reşiţa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alexandria ↓

CSM Reşiţa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Alexandria or draw

53%

Alexandria or CSM Reşiţa

74%

Draw or CSM Reşiţa

72%

Winning margin

Alexandria wins by 2+

11%

CSM Reşiţa wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Alexandria 1+ goals

67%

Alexandria 2+ goals

30%

Alexandria 3+ goals

10%

CSM Reşiţa 1+ goals

78%

CSM Reşiţa 2+ goals

45%

CSM Reşiţa 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Alexandria (draw refunded)

37%

CSM Reşiţa (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alexandria at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

CSM Reşiţa away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.47 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alexandria attack 0.75 + CSM Reşiţa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.11

CSM Reşiţa attack 1.22 + Alexandria defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Alexandria scores more

28%

level

26%

CSM Reşiţa scores more

47%

CSM Reşiţa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CSM Reşiţa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff