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CSKA Sofia vs Botev Vratsa — First League 2026

CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa
10/24/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 13Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

CSKA Sofia62%
×Draw22%
Botev Vratsa15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Sofia
1.83
Botev Vratsa
0.78

CSKA Sofia creates 135% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 136 away

creates per match

CSKA Sofia
1.78
Botev Vratsa
0.93

allows per match

CSKA Sofia
0.63
Botev Vratsa
1.89

finishing

CSKA Sofia+0.00on par
Botev Vratsa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia ↓

Botev Vratsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia or draw
85%
CSKA Sofia or Botev Vratsa
78%
Draw or Botev Vratsa
38%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia wins by 2+
37%
Botev Vratsa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia 1+ goals
84%
CSKA Sofia 2+ goals
54%
CSKA Sofia 3+ goals
28%
Botev Vratsa 1+ goals
54%
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
18%
Botev Vratsa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)
80%
Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.63 · 139 matches

Botev Vratsa away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.89 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia attack 1.78 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.83

Botev Vratsa attack 0.93 + CSKA Sofia defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

CSKA Sofia scores more
62%
level
22%
Botev Vratsa scores more
15%

CSKA Sofia at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "CSKA Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: CSKA Sofia 2–0 Botev Vratsa

CSKA Sofia beat Botev Vratsa 2-0 in First League on October 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski in Sofia.