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Botev Vratsa vs CSKA Sofia — First League 2026

Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia
4/5/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 28Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Botev Vratsa28%
×Draw29%
CSKA Sofia43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Vratsa
0.94
CSKA Sofia
1.22

CSKA Sofia creates 30% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 133 away

creates per match

Botev Vratsa
1.04
CSKA Sofia
1.32

allows per match

Botev Vratsa
1.12
CSKA Sofia
0.83

finishing

Botev Vratsa+0.00on par
CSKA Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa ↓

CSKA Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa or draw
57%
Botev Vratsa or CSKA Sofia
71%
Draw or CSKA Sofia
72%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa wins by 2+
10%
CSKA Sofia wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa 1+ goals
61%
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
24%
Botev Vratsa 3+ goals
7%
CSKA Sofia 1+ goals
70%
CSKA Sofia 2+ goals
34%
CSKA Sofia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)
40%
CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.12 · 139 matches

CSKA Sofia away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa attack 1.04 + CSKA Sofia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.94

CSKA Sofia attack 1.32 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Botev Vratsa scores more
28%
level
29%
CSKA Sofia scores more
43%

CSKA Sofia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CSKA Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Botev Vratsa 1–1 CSKA Sofia

Botev Vratsa and CSKA Sofia drew 1-1 in First League on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Vratsa.