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CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali — First League 2018

CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
2/6/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 20National Stadium Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

CSKA Sofia53%
×Draw26%
Arda Kardzhali21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Sofia
1.48
Arda Kardzhali
0.81

CSKA Sofia creates 83% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 120 away

creates per match

CSKA Sofia
1.78
Arda Kardzhali
0.99

allows per match

CSKA Sofia
0.63
Arda Kardzhali
1.17

finishing

CSKA Sofia+0.00on par
Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia ↓

Arda Kardzhali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia or draw
79%
CSKA Sofia or Arda Kardzhali
74%
Draw or Arda Kardzhali
47%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia wins by 2+
27%
Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia 1+ goals
77%
CSKA Sofia 2+ goals
43%
CSKA Sofia 3+ goals
19%
Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
56%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
19%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)
72%
Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.63 · 139 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia attack 1.78 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.48

Arda Kardzhali attack 0.99 + CSKA Sofia defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

CSKA Sofia scores more
53%
level
26%
Arda Kardzhali scores more
21%

CSKA Sofia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "CSKA Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali

CSKA Sofia beat Arda Kardzhali 3-1 in First League on February 6, 2026.

The match was played at National Stadium Vasil Levski in Sofia.