CSKA Sofia 2–1 Arda Kardzhali: Result & Stats

CSKA Sofia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Arda Kardzhali

2/26/2025

League #174 · Quarter-finalsStadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CSKA Sofia49%

×Draw25%

Arda Kardzhali27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA SofiaExpected goals in this matchArda Kardzhali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.14

CSKA Sofia

1.64

Arda Kardzhali

1.14

CSKA Sofia creates 44% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.60

creates per match

1.67

0.60

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

CSKA Sofia

1.60

Arda Kardzhali

1.67

allows per match

CSKA Sofia

0.60

Arda Kardzhali

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA Sofia+0.00on par

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia ↓

Arda Kardzhali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia or draw

73%

CSKA Sofia or Arda Kardzhali

75%

Draw or Arda Kardzhali

51%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia wins by 2+

26%

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia 1+ goals

81%

CSKA Sofia 2+ goals

49%

CSKA Sofia 3+ goals

23%

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals

68%

Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals

32%

Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)

65%

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia attack 1.60 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.67 + CSKA Sofia defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

CSKA Sofia scores more

49%

level

25%

Arda Kardzhali scores more

27%

CSKA Sofia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "CSKA Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff