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CSKA Sofia II vs Chavdar Etropole — Third League - Southwest 2018

CSKA Sofia II
CSKA Sofia II
FT
3 – 0
Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
2/17/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 20Sportna baza Pancharevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

CSKA Sofia II51%
×Draw24%
Chavdar Etropole25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Sofia II
1.75
Chavdar Etropole
1.15

CSKA Sofia II creates 52% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 87 away

creates per match

CSKA Sofia II
2.15
Chavdar Etropole
1.55

allows per match

CSKA Sofia II
0.74
Chavdar Etropole
1.34

finishing

CSKA Sofia II+0.00on par
Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia II ↓

Chavdar Etropole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia II or draw
75%
CSKA Sofia II or Chavdar Etropole
76%
Draw or Chavdar Etropole
49%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia II wins by 2+
28%
Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia II 1+ goals
83%
CSKA Sofia II 2+ goals
52%
CSKA Sofia II 3+ goals
25%
Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
68%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
32%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia II (draw refunded)
67%
Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia II at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

Chavdar Etropole away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.34 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia II attack 2.15 + Chavdar Etropole defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.75

Chavdar Etropole attack 1.55 + CSKA Sofia II defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

CSKA Sofia II scores more
51%
level
24%
Chavdar Etropole scores more
25%

CSKA Sofia II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "CSKA Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSKA Sofia II vs Chavdar Etropole

CSKA Sofia II beat Chavdar Etropole 3-0 in Third League - Southwest on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Sportna baza Pancharevo in Sofia.