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Chavdar Etropole vs CSKA Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CSKA Sofia II
CSKA Sofia II
3/18/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - Promotion Round - 1Stadion Chavdar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Chavdar Etropole52%
×Draw24%
CSKA Sofia II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chavdar Etropole
1.76
CSKA Sofia II
1.14

Chavdar Etropole creates 54% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 34 away

creates per match

Chavdar Etropole
2.08
CSKA Sofia II
1.44

allows per match

Chavdar Etropole
0.84
CSKA Sofia II
1.44

finishing

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par
CSKA Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chavdar Etropole ↓

CSKA Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Chavdar Etropole or draw
75%
Chavdar Etropole or CSKA Sofia II
76%
Draw or CSKA Sofia II
48%

Winning margin

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
28%
CSKA Sofia II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
83%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
52%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
26%
CSKA Sofia II 1+ goals
68%
CSKA Sofia II 2+ goals
32%
CSKA Sofia II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
68%
CSKA Sofia II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chavdar Etropole at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

CSKA Sofia II away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chavdar Etropole attack 2.08 + CSKA Sofia II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.76

CSKA Sofia II attack 1.44 + Chavdar Etropole defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Chavdar Etropole scores more
52%
level
24%
CSKA Sofia II scores more
25%

Chavdar Etropole at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chavdar Etropole vs CSKA Sofia II

Chavdar Etropole beat CSKA Sofia II 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Chavdar in Etropole.