CSKA Moskva U20 1–2 Arsenal Tula U20

CSKA Moskva U20

FT

1 – 2

Arsenal Tula U20

12/1/2019

Youth Championship · Round 18Stadion Oktyabr' Artificial Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

CSKA Moskva U2052%

×Draw23%

Arsenal Tula U2025%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA Moskva U20Expected goals in this matchArsenal Tula U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.22

CSKA Moskva U20

1.85

Arsenal Tula U20

1.22

CSKA Moskva U20 creates 52% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 39 away

2.10

creates per match

1.49

0.95

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

CSKA Moskva U20

2.10

Arsenal Tula U20

1.49

allows per match

CSKA Moskva U20

0.95

Arsenal Tula U20

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA Moskva U20+0.00on par

Arsenal Tula U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moskva U20 ↓

Arsenal Tula U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

CSKA Moskva U20 or draw

75%

CSKA Moskva U20 or Arsenal Tula U20

77%

Draw or Arsenal Tula U20

48%

Winning margin

CSKA Moskva U20 wins by 2+

29%

Arsenal Tula U20 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

CSKA Moskva U20 1+ goals

84%

CSKA Moskva U20 2+ goals

55%

CSKA Moskva U20 3+ goals

28%

Arsenal Tula U20 1+ goals

70%

Arsenal Tula U20 2+ goals

34%

Arsenal Tula U20 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moskva U20 (draw refunded)

67%

Arsenal Tula U20 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moskva U20 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

Arsenal Tula U20 away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moskva U20 attack 2.10 + Arsenal Tula U20 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.85

Arsenal Tula U20 attack 1.49 + CSKA Moskva U20 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

CSKA Moskva U20 scores more

52%

level

23%

Arsenal Tula U20 scores more

25%

CSKA Moskva U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CSKA Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff