Arsenal Tula U20 0–1 CSKA Moskva U20

Arsenal Tula U20

FT

0 – 1

CSKA Moskva U20

8/31/2019

Youth Championship · Round 8Stadion DYUSSH Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Arsenal Tula U2028%

×Draw21%

CSKA Moskva U2050%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arsenal Tula U20Expected goals in this matchCSKA Moskva U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

2.07

Arsenal Tula U20

1.52

CSKA Moskva U20

2.07

CSKA Moskva U20 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 20 away

2.08

creates per match

2.50

1.64

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Arsenal Tula U20

2.08

CSKA Moskva U20

2.50

allows per match

Arsenal Tula U20

1.64

CSKA Moskva U20

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal Tula U20+0.00on par

CSKA Moskva U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula U20 ↓

CSKA Moskva U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula U20 or draw

50%

Arsenal Tula U20 or CSKA Moskva U20

79%

Draw or CSKA Moskva U20

72%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula U20 wins by 2+

13%

CSKA Moskva U20 wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula U20 1+ goals

78%

Arsenal Tula U20 2+ goals

45%

Arsenal Tula U20 3+ goals

20%

CSKA Moskva U20 1+ goals

87%

CSKA Moskva U20 2+ goals

61%

CSKA Moskva U20 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula U20 (draw refunded)

36%

CSKA Moskva U20 (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula U20 at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.64 · 39 matches

CSKA Moskva U20 away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula U20 attack 2.08 + CSKA Moskva U20 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.52

CSKA Moskva U20 attack 2.50 + Arsenal Tula U20 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Arsenal Tula U20 scores more

28%

level

21%

CSKA Moskva U20 scores more

50%

CSKA Moskva U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CSKA Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff