CSKA Moskva U19 1–0 Nizhny Novgorod U19

CSKA Moskva U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nizhny Novgorod U19

10/3/2025

Youth Championship · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

CSKA Moskva U1963%

×Draw20%

Nizhny Novgorod U1917%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA Moskva U19Expected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.08

CSKA Moskva U19

2.23

Nizhny Novgorod U19

1.08

CSKA Moskva U19 creates 106% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 74 away

2.38

creates per match

1.12

1.05

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

CSKA Moskva U19

2.38

Nizhny Novgorod U19

1.12

allows per match

CSKA Moskva U19

1.05

Nizhny Novgorod U19

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA Moskva U19+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moskva U19 ↓

Nizhny Novgorod U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

CSKA Moskva U19 or draw

83%

CSKA Moskva U19 or Nizhny Novgorod U19

80%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod U19

37%

Winning margin

CSKA Moskva U19 wins by 2+

40%

Nizhny Novgorod U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

CSKA Moskva U19 1+ goals

89%

CSKA Moskva U19 2+ goals

65%

CSKA Moskva U19 3+ goals

38%

Nizhny Novgorod U19 1+ goals

66%

Nizhny Novgorod U19 2+ goals

29%

Nizhny Novgorod U19 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moskva U19 (draw refunded)

78%

Nizhny Novgorod U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moskva U19 at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.05 · 77 matches

Nizhny Novgorod U19 away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.08 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moskva U19 attack 2.38 + Nizhny Novgorod U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.23

Nizhny Novgorod U19 attack 1.12 + CSKA Moskva U19 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

CSKA Moskva U19 scores more

63%

level

20%

Nizhny Novgorod U19 scores more

17%

CSKA Moskva U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "CSKA Moskva U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff