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CSKA Moscow vs Krylya Sovetov — Cup 2019

CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscowadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
4/5/2023CupCup · Premier League Path - Semi-finalsVEB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CSKA Moscow50%
×Draw24%
Krylya Sovetov25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Moscow
1.67
Krylya Sovetov
1.11

CSKA Moscow creates 50% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 19 away

creates per match

CSKA Moscow
1.65
Krylya Sovetov
1.53

allows per match

CSKA Moscow
0.70
Krylya Sovetov
1.68

finishing

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moscow ↓

Krylya Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

CSKA Moscow or draw
75%
CSKA Moscow or Krylya Sovetov
76%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov
50%

Winning margin

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+
27%
Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals
81%
CSKA Moscow 2+ goals
50%
CSKA Moscow 3+ goals
23%
Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
67%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
30%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)
67%
Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moscow at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.70 · 23 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moscow attack 1.65 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.67

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.53 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CSKA Moscow scores more
50%
level
24%
Krylya Sovetov scores more
25%

CSKA Moscow at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: CSKA Moscow 1–0 Krylya Sovetov

CSKA Moscow beat Krylya Sovetov 1-0 in Cup on April 5, 2023.

The match was played at VEB Arena in Moskva.