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CSKA Moscow vs Krylya Sovetov — Premier League 2018

CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
10/23/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12VEB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

CSKA Moscow57%
×Draw23%
Krylya Sovetov20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Moscow
1.83
Krylya Sovetov
0.97

CSKA Moscow creates 89% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 106 away

creates per match

CSKA Moscow
1.87
Krylya Sovetov
1.03

allows per match

CSKA Moscow
0.90
Krylya Sovetov
1.79

finishing

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moscow ↓

Krylya Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

CSKA Moscow or draw
80%
CSKA Moscow or Krylya Sovetov
77%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov
43%

Winning margin

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+
33%
Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals
84%
CSKA Moscow 2+ goals
54%
CSKA Moscow 3+ goals
28%
Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
62%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
25%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)
74%
Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moscow at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.90 · 120 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.79 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moscow attack 1.87 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.83

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.03 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

CSKA Moscow scores more
57%
level
23%
Krylya Sovetov scores more
20%

CSKA Moscow at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: CSKA Moscow 3–1 Krylya Sovetov

CSKA Moscow beat Krylya Sovetov 3-1 in Premier League on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at VEB Arena in Moskva.