CSKA Moscow 2–0 FC Rostov: Result & Stats | Cup

CSKA Moscow

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Rostov

3/12/2024

Cup · Premier League Path - Quarter-finalsVEB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

CSKA Moscow52%

×Draw26%

FC Rostov22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA MoscowExpected goals in this matchFC Rostov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.91

CSKA Moscow

1.53

FC Rostov

0.91

CSKA Moscow creates 68% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 24 away

1.65

creates per match

1.13

0.70

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

CSKA Moscow

1.65

FC Rostov

1.13

allows per match

CSKA Moscow

0.70

FC Rostov

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

FC Rostov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moscow ↓

FC Rostov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

CSKA Moscow or draw

78%

CSKA Moscow or FC Rostov

74%

Draw or FC Rostov

48%

Winning margin

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+

27%

FC Rostov wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals

78%

CSKA Moscow 2+ goals

45%

CSKA Moscow 3+ goals

20%

FC Rostov 1+ goals

60%

FC Rostov 2+ goals

23%

FC Rostov 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)

70%

FC Rostov (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moscow at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.70 · 23 matches

FC Rostov away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moscow attack 1.65 + FC Rostov defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.53

FC Rostov attack 1.13 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

CSKA Moscow scores more

52%

level

26%

FC Rostov scores more

22%

CSKA Moscow at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff