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CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo — Premier League 2025

CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow
Preview
15:00
Dynamo
Dynamo
4/24/2027Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25VEB Arena
Big match
46%
CSKA Moscow
model favours
46%24%30%

Dynamo score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

CSKA Moscow46%
×Draw24%
Dynamo30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Moscow
1.68
Dynamo
1.31

CSKA Moscow creates 28% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 27 away

creates per match

CSKA Moscow
2.17
Dynamo
1.56

allows per match

CSKA Moscow
1.06
Dynamo
1.19

finishing

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par
Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moscow ↓

Dynamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

CSKA Moscow or draw
70%
CSKA Moscow or Dynamo
76%
Draw or Dynamo
54%

Winning margin

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+
24%
Dynamo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals
81%
CSKA Moscow 2+ goals
50%
CSKA Moscow 3+ goals
24%
Dynamo 1+ goals
73%
Dynamo 2+ goals
38%
Dynamo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)
61%
Dynamo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moscow at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Dynamo away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moscow attack 2.17 + Dynamo defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.68

Dynamo attack 1.56 + CSKA Moscow defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

CSKA Moscow scores more
46%
level
24%
Dynamo scores more
30%

CSKA Moscow at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Dynamo have won 3 in a row
  • CSKA Moscow win just 36% against the top half (vs 63% against the bottom)
  • Dynamo win just 21% against the top half (vs 56% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • CSKA Moscow outscore their xG (1.1 vs 0.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
CSKA Moscow
Balanced
Dynamo
Balanced
53%Possession57%
82%Pass accuracy80%
13.2ShotsBiggest gap17.9
0.49xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CSKA MoscowDynamo

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
CSKA Moscow
2
Draws
1
Dynamo
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 80%
1–41–13–10–03–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Moscow
LLDD
Dynamo
WWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CSKA Moscow face Dynamo (Premier League)

Premier League returns with CSKA Moscow hosting Dynamo. Match starts April 24, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

CSKA Moscow host Dynamo at VEB Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.