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CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo — Cup 2021

CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscowadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dynamo
Dynamo
M. Kislyak 63'
S. Koïta 50'
D. Skopintsev 58'
3/12/2025CupCup · Premier League Path - Semi-finalsVEB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

CSKA Moscow45%
×Draw24%
Dynamo31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Moscow
1.67
Dynamo
1.33

CSKA Moscow creates 26% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

creates per match

CSKA Moscow
1.67
Dynamo
1.90

allows per match

CSKA Moscow
0.76
Dynamo
1.67

finishing

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par
Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moscow ↓

Dynamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

CSKA Moscow or draw
69%
CSKA Moscow or Dynamo
76%
Draw or Dynamo
55%

Winning margin

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+
24%
Dynamo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals
81%
CSKA Moscow 2+ goals
50%
CSKA Moscow 3+ goals
23%
Dynamo 1+ goals
74%
Dynamo 2+ goals
38%
Dynamo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)
60%
Dynamo (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moscow at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.76 · 21 matches

Dynamo away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moscow attack 1.67 + Dynamo defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Dynamo attack 1.90 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

CSKA Moscow scores more
45%
level
24%
Dynamo scores more
31%

CSKA Moscow at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
M. Lukin← Willyan Rocha
50'
S. Koïta↳ A. Fayzullaev
58'
D. Skopintsev↳ D. Fomin
60'
K. Glebov← S. Koïta
60'
J. Carrascal← E. Smelov
61'
El Mehdi Maouhoub
63'
M. Kislyak↳ K. Glebov
71'
E. Dasa← D. Aleksandrov
77'
K. Bistrović← I. Oblyakov
77'
S. Guarirapa← T. Musaev
83'
D. Makarov← D. Skopintsev
83'
Arthur Gomes← Y. Gladyshev
85'
M. Mukhin← M. Pjanić
90+5'
Saúl Guarirapa
90+1'
Kirill Glebov
90+1'
Roberto Fernández
90'
Jorge Carrascal

Statistics

CSKADynamo
Discipline
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1

Cup: CSKA Moscow 2–1 Dynamo

CSKA Moscow beat Dynamo 2-1 in Cup on March 12, 2025.

Goals: S. Koïta (50'), D. Skopintsev (58'), M. Kislyak (63').

The match was played at VEB Arena in Moskva.