Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

CSKA Moscow vs Dinamo Moscow — Premier League 2018

CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Dinamo Moscow
Dinamo Moscow
5/5/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27VEB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

CSKA Moscow48%
×Draw25%
Dinamo Moscow27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Moscow
1.62
Dinamo Moscow
1.16

CSKA Moscow creates 40% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

creates per match

CSKA Moscow
1.87
Dinamo Moscow
1.41

allows per match

CSKA Moscow
0.90
Dinamo Moscow
1.37

finishing

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par
Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moscow ↓

Dinamo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

CSKA Moscow or draw
73%
CSKA Moscow or Dinamo Moscow
75%
Draw or Dinamo Moscow
52%

Winning margin

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+
25%
Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals
80%
CSKA Moscow 2+ goals
48%
CSKA Moscow 3+ goals
22%
Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals
69%
Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals
32%
Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)
64%
Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moscow at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.90 · 120 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.37 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moscow attack 1.87 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.62

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.41 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CSKA Moscow scores more
48%
level
25%
Dinamo Moscow scores more
27%

CSKA Moscow at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSKA Moscow vs Dinamo Moscow

CSKA Moscow and Dinamo Moscow drew 2-2 in Premier League on May 5, 2019.

The match was played at VEB Arena in Moscow.