CSKA Moscow 2–0 Anzhi: Result & Stats

CSKA Moscow

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Anzhi

4/24/2019

Premier League · Round 25VEB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CSKA Moscow65%

×Draw22%

Anzhi12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA MoscowExpected goals in this matchAnzhi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.61

CSKA Moscow

1.77

Anzhi

0.61

CSKA Moscow creates 190% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 15 away

1.87

creates per match

0.33

0.90

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

CSKA Moscow

1.87

Anzhi

0.33

allows per match

CSKA Moscow

0.90

Anzhi

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Anzhi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moscow ↓

Anzhi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CSKA Moscow or draw

88%

CSKA Moscow or Anzhi

78%

Draw or Anzhi

35%

Winning margin

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+

38%

Anzhi wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals

83%

CSKA Moscow 2+ goals

53%

CSKA Moscow 3+ goals

26%

Anzhi 1+ goals

46%

Anzhi 2+ goals

13%

Anzhi 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)

84%

Anzhi (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moscow at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.90 · 120 matches

Anzhi away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moscow attack 1.87 + Anzhi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Anzhi attack 0.33 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

CSKA Moscow scores more

65%

level

22%

Anzhi scores more

12%

CSKA Moscow at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff