Anzhi 0–2 CSKA Moscow: Result & Stats

Anzhi

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

CSKA Moscow

10/19/2018

Premier League · Round 11Anzhi-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Anzhi20%

×Draw26%

CSKA Moscow54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnzhiExpected goals in this matchCSKA Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

1.50

Anzhi

0.80

CSKA Moscow

1.50

CSKA Moscow creates 88% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 120 away

0.53

creates per match

1.34

1.67

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Anzhi

0.53

CSKA Moscow

1.34

allows per match

Anzhi

1.67

CSKA Moscow

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Anzhi+0.00on par

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anzhi ↓

CSKA Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–115%

0–211%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Anzhi or draw

46%

Anzhi or CSKA Moscow

74%

Draw or CSKA Moscow

80%

Winning margin

Anzhi wins by 2+

6%

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Anzhi 1+ goals

55%

Anzhi 2+ goals

19%

Anzhi 3+ goals

5%

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals

78%

CSKA Moscow 2+ goals

44%

CSKA Moscow 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Anzhi (draw refunded)

27%

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anzhi at home — creates 0.53, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

CSKA Moscow away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.06 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anzhi attack 0.53 + CSKA Moscow defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.80

CSKA Moscow attack 1.34 + Anzhi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Anzhi scores more

20%

level

26%

CSKA Moscow scores more

54%

CSKA Moscow at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff