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CSKA 1948 vs Botev Vratsa — First League 2026

CSKA 1948
CSKA 1948
Preview
16:00
Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa
7/25/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 2Bistritsa Stadium
Big match
43%
CSKA 1948
model favours
43%28%28%

Botev Vratsa are unbeaten in 8 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

CSKA 194843%
×Draw28%
Botev Vratsa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948
1.27
Botev Vratsa
0.97

CSKA 1948 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948
1.14
Botev Vratsa
0.89

allows per match

CSKA 1948
1.05
Botev Vratsa
1.41

finishing

CSKA 1948-0.08on par
Botev Vratsa-0.36scores less

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 ↓

Botev Vratsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 or draw
72%
CSKA 1948 or Botev Vratsa
72%
Draw or Botev Vratsa
57%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+
19%
Botev Vratsa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 1+ goals
72%
CSKA 1948 2+ goals
36%
CSKA 1948 3+ goals
14%
Botev Vratsa 1+ goals
62%
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
25%
Botev Vratsa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)
60%
Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.05 · 16 matches

Botev Vratsa away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.41 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 attack 1.14 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Botev Vratsa attack 0.89 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CSKA 1948 scores more
43%
level
28%
Botev Vratsa scores more
28%

CSKA 1948 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • CSKA 1948 score first in only 19% of matches
  • Botev Vratsa score first in only 19% of matches
  • Botev Vratsa have scored in 8 games running
  • 69% of CSKA 1948’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • CSKA 1948 win just 39% against the top half (vs 69% against the bottom)
  • Style contrast — CSKA 1948 play Attack-heavy, Botev Vratsa Defensively solid

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
CSKA 1948
Attack-heavy
Botev Vratsa
Defensively solid
50%Possession45%
81%Pass accuracy76%
10.6Shots7.8
1.24xGBiggest gap0.85
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CSKA 1948Botev Vratsa

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

6
CSKA 1948
2
Draws
2
Botev Vratsa
Avg goals: 2.1BTTS: 20%
1–00–00–11–03–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
1948
DDWLD
Vratsa
DWDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CSKA 1948 face Botev Vratsa (First League)

First League returns with CSKA 1948 hosting Botev Vratsa. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

CSKA 1948 host Botev Vratsa at Bistritsa Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.