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Botev Vratsa vs CSKA 1948 — First League 2026

Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CSKA 1948
CSKA 1948
11/3/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 14Hristo Botev Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Botev Vratsa33%
×Draw29%
CSKA 194838%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Vratsa
1.06
CSKA 1948
1.17

CSKA 1948 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 105 away

creates per match

Botev Vratsa
1.04
CSKA 1948
1.22

allows per match

Botev Vratsa
1.12
CSKA 1948
1.09

finishing

Botev Vratsa+0.00on par
CSKA 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa ↓

CSKA 1948 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa or draw
62%
Botev Vratsa or CSKA 1948
71%
Draw or CSKA 1948
67%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa wins by 2+
13%
CSKA 1948 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa 1+ goals
65%
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
29%
Botev Vratsa 3+ goals
9%
CSKA 1948 1+ goals
69%
CSKA 1948 2+ goals
33%
CSKA 1948 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)
46%
CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.12 · 139 matches

CSKA 1948 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa attack 1.04 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

CSKA 1948 attack 1.22 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Botev Vratsa scores more
33%
level
29%
CSKA 1948 scores more
38%

CSKA 1948 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Vratsa vs CSKA 1948

Botev Vratsa and CSKA 1948 drew 0-0 in First League on November 3, 2025.

The match was played at Hristo Botev Stadium in Vraca.