Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

CSKA 1948 vs Botev Vratsa — First League 2026

CSKA 1948
CSKA 1948
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa
2/21/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 22Stadion Vitosha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

CSKA 194854%
×Draw24%
Botev Vratsa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948
1.70
Botev Vratsa
0.98

CSKA 1948 creates 73% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 136 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948
1.51
Botev Vratsa
0.93

allows per match

CSKA 1948
1.03
Botev Vratsa
1.89

finishing

CSKA 1948+0.00on par
Botev Vratsa+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 ↓

Botev Vratsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 or draw
78%
CSKA 1948 or Botev Vratsa
76%
Draw or Botev Vratsa
46%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+
30%
Botev Vratsa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 1+ goals
82%
CSKA 1948 2+ goals
51%
CSKA 1948 3+ goals
24%
Botev Vratsa 1+ goals
62%
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
26%
Botev Vratsa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)
71%
Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.03 · 104 matches

Botev Vratsa away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.89 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 attack 1.51 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.70

Botev Vratsa attack 0.93 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

CSKA 1948 scores more
54%
level
24%
Botev Vratsa scores more
22%

CSKA 1948 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: CSKA 1948 1–0 Botev Vratsa

CSKA 1948 beat Botev Vratsa 1-0 in First League on February 21, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Vitosha in Bistrica.