Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

CSKA 1948 Sofia III vs Balkan Botevgrad — Third League - Southwest 2018

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
FT
0 – 1
Balkan Botevgrad
Balkan Botevgrad
11/6/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 14Stadion Vitosha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III45%
×Draw24%
Balkan Botevgrad31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.62
Balkan Botevgrad
1.31

CSKA 1948 Sofia III creates 24% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 131 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.51
Balkan Botevgrad
1.27

allows per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.34
Balkan Botevgrad
1.73

finishing

CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par
Balkan Botevgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 Sofia III ↓

Balkan Botevgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 Sofia III or draw
69%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III or Balkan Botevgrad
76%
Draw or Balkan Botevgrad
55%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+
23%
Balkan Botevgrad wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals
80%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals
48%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals
22%
Balkan Botevgrad 1+ goals
73%
Balkan Botevgrad 2+ goals
38%
Balkan Botevgrad 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)
59%
Balkan Botevgrad (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

Balkan Botevgrad away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.73 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.51 + Balkan Botevgrad defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.62

Balkan Botevgrad attack 1.27 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more
45%
level
24%
Balkan Botevgrad scores more
31%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSKA 1948 Sofia III vs Balkan Botevgrad

Balkan Botevgrad beat CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Vitosha in Bistrica.