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Balkan Botevgrad vs CSKA 1948 Sofia III — Third League - Southwest 2018

Balkan Botevgrad
Balkan Botevgrad
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
8/3/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 1Hristo Botev Izkustven Teren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Balkan Botevgrad53%
×Draw23%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balkan Botevgrad
1.84
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.18

Balkan Botevgrad creates 56% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 52 away

creates per match

Balkan Botevgrad
1.89
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.21

allows per match

Balkan Botevgrad
1.15
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.79

finishing

Balkan Botevgrad+0.00on par
CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balkan Botevgrad ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Balkan Botevgrad or draw
76%
Balkan Botevgrad or CSKA 1948 Sofia III
77%
Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia III
47%

Winning margin

Balkan Botevgrad wins by 2+
30%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Balkan Botevgrad 1+ goals
84%
Balkan Botevgrad 2+ goals
55%
Balkan Botevgrad 3+ goals
28%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals
69%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals
33%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Balkan Botevgrad (draw refunded)
68%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balkan Botevgrad at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.15 · 129 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balkan Botevgrad attack 1.89 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.84

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.21 + Balkan Botevgrad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Balkan Botevgrad scores more
53%
level
23%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more
24%

Balkan Botevgrad at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Balkan Botevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Balkan Botevgrad 4–3 CSKA 1948 Sofia III

Balkan Botevgrad beat CSKA 1948 Sofia III 4-3 in Third League - Southwest on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Hristo Botev Izkustven Teren in Botevgrad.