CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2–1 Chernomorets Balchik

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Chernomorets Balchik

9/2/2023

Second League · Round 8Tsarsko selo Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia II57%

×Draw25%

Chernomorets Balchik18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA 1948 Sofia IIExpected goals in this matchChernomorets Balchik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.78

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

1.61

Chernomorets Balchik

0.78

CSKA 1948 Sofia II creates 106% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 42 away

1.56

creates per match

0.62

0.94

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

1.56

Chernomorets Balchik

0.62

allows per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

0.94

Chernomorets Balchik

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA 1948 Sofia II+0.00on par

Chernomorets Balchik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 Sofia II ↓

Chernomorets Balchik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 Sofia II or draw

82%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II or Chernomorets Balchik

75%

Draw or Chernomorets Balchik

43%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia II wins by 2+

31%

Chernomorets Balchik wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1+ goals

80%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2+ goals

48%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 3+ goals

22%

Chernomorets Balchik 1+ goals

54%

Chernomorets Balchik 2+ goals

18%

Chernomorets Balchik 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 Sofia II (draw refunded)

76%

Chernomorets Balchik (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 Sofia II at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.94 · 71 matches

Chernomorets Balchik away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.67 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II attack 1.56 + Chernomorets Balchik defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Chernomorets Balchik attack 0.62 + CSKA 1948 Sofia II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

CSKA 1948 Sofia II scores more

57%

level

25%

Chernomorets Balchik scores more

18%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff