Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chernomorets Balchik vs CSKA 1948 Sofia II — Second League 2018

Chernomorets Balchik
Chernomorets Balchik
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
3/16/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 25Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Chernomorets Balchik38%
×Draw28%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets Balchik
1.25
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 71 away

creates per match

Chernomorets Balchik
1.24
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.35

allows per match

Chernomorets Balchik
0.98
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.25

finishing

Chernomorets Balchik+0.00on par
CSKA 1948 Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets Balchik ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chernomorets Balchik or draw
66%
Chernomorets Balchik or CSKA 1948 Sofia II
72%
Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia II
62%

Winning margin

Chernomorets Balchik wins by 2+
17%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chernomorets Balchik 1+ goals
71%
Chernomorets Balchik 2+ goals
36%
Chernomorets Balchik 3+ goals
13%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1+ goals
69%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2+ goals
33%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets Balchik (draw refunded)
53%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets Balchik at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.98 · 42 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.25 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets Balchik attack 1.24 + CSKA 1948 Sofia II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

CSKA 1948 Sofia II attack 1.35 + Chernomorets Balchik defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chernomorets Balchik scores more
38%
level
28%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II scores more
34%

Chernomorets Balchik at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chernomorets Balchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chernomorets Balchik vs CSKA 1948 Sofia II

CSKA 1948 Sofia II beat Chernomorets Balchik 3-1 in Second League on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Balchik.