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CSKA 1948 Sofia II vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas — Second League 2018

CSKA 1948 Sofia II
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
10/27/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 15Tsarsko selo Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia II50%
×Draw26%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.48
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.94

CSKA 1948 Sofia II creates 57% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 33 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.56
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.94

allows per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II
0.94
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.39

finishing

CSKA 1948 Sofia II+0.00on par
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 Sofia II ↓

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 Sofia II or draw
76%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
74%
Draw or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
50%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia II wins by 2+
25%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1+ goals
77%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2+ goals
43%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 3+ goals
19%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals
61%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals
24%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 Sofia II (draw refunded)
67%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 Sofia II at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.94 · 71 matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II attack 1.56 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.48

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 0.94 + CSKA 1948 Sofia II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CSKA 1948 Sofia II scores more
50%
level
26%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more
24%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1–0 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

CSKA 1948 Sofia II beat Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1-0 in Second League on October 27, 2023.

The match was played at Tsarsko selo Complex in Sofia.