Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1–2 CSKA 1948 Sofia II

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

5/11/2024

Second League · Round 32Efbet Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas40%

×Draw28%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chernomorets 1919 BurgasExpected goals in this matchCSKA 1948 Sofia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.08

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

1.23

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

1.08

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas creates 14% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 71 away

1.21

creates per match

1.35

0.82

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

1.21

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

1.35

allows per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

0.82

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par

CSKA 1948 Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or draw

68%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or CSKA 1948 Sofia II

72%

Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia II

60%

Winning margin

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+

17%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals

71%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals

35%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals

13%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1+ goals

66%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2+ goals

29%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)

55%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.82 · 33 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.25 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 1.21 + CSKA 1948 Sofia II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

CSKA 1948 Sofia II attack 1.35 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more

40%

level

28%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II scores more

32%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff