CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2–1 Botev Plovdiv II

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Botev Plovdiv II

9/7/2024

Second League · Round 8Stadion Vitosha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia II62%

×Draw23%

Botev Plovdiv II15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA 1948 Sofia IIExpected goals in this matchBotev Plovdiv II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.73

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

1.75

Botev Plovdiv II

0.73

CSKA 1948 Sofia II creates 140% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 54 away

1.56

creates per match

0.52

0.94

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

1.56

Botev Plovdiv II

0.52

allows per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

0.94

Botev Plovdiv II

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA 1948 Sofia II+0.00on par

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 Sofia II ↓

Botev Plovdiv II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 Sofia II or draw

85%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II or Botev Plovdiv II

77%

Draw or Botev Plovdiv II

38%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia II wins by 2+

35%

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1+ goals

83%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2+ goals

52%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 3+ goals

25%

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals

52%

Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals

17%

Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 Sofia II (draw refunded)

80%

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 Sofia II at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.94 · 71 matches

Botev Plovdiv II away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.93 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II attack 1.56 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.75

Botev Plovdiv II attack 0.52 + CSKA 1948 Sofia II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

CSKA 1948 Sofia II scores more

62%

level

23%

Botev Plovdiv II scores more

15%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff