Botev Plovdiv II 1–3 CSKA 1948 Sofia II

Botev Plovdiv II

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

3/13/2023

Second League · Round 22Sporten kompleks Botev 1912

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Botev Plovdiv II36%

×Draw27%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev Plovdiv IIExpected goals in this matchCSKA 1948 Sofia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.27

Botev Plovdiv II

1.23

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 71 away

1.20

creates per match

1.35

1.20

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv II

1.20

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

1.35

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv II

1.20

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

CSKA 1948 Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv II ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv II or draw

63%

Botev Plovdiv II or CSKA 1948 Sofia II

73%

Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia II

64%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+

15%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals

71%

Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals

35%

Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals

13%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1+ goals

72%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2+ goals

36%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

49%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.25 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.20 + CSKA 1948 Sofia II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

CSKA 1948 Sofia II attack 1.35 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Botev Plovdiv II scores more

36%

level

27%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II scores more

37%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff