Csikszereda 2–1 Unirea Slobozia: Result & Stats

Csikszereda

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Unirea Slobozia

11/21/2025

Liga I · Round 17Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Csikszereda48%

×Draw26%

Unirea Slobozia25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CsikszeredaExpected goals in this matchUnirea Slobozia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.99

Csikszereda

1.47

Unirea Slobozia

0.99

Csikszereda creates 48% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 41 away

1.35

creates per match

0.93

1.05

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Csikszereda

1.35

Unirea Slobozia

0.93

allows per match

Csikszereda

1.05

Unirea Slobozia

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Csikszereda+0.00on par

Unirea Slobozia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csikszereda ↓

Unirea Slobozia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Csikszereda or draw

75%

Csikszereda or Unirea Slobozia

74%

Draw or Unirea Slobozia

52%

Winning margin

Csikszereda wins by 2+

24%

Unirea Slobozia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Csikszereda 1+ goals

77%

Csikszereda 2+ goals

43%

Csikszereda 3+ goals

18%

Unirea Slobozia 1+ goals

63%

Unirea Slobozia 2+ goals

26%

Unirea Slobozia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Csikszereda (draw refunded)

65%

Unirea Slobozia (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csikszereda at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Unirea Slobozia away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.59 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csikszereda attack 1.35 + Unirea Slobozia defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.47

Unirea Slobozia attack 0.93 + Csikszereda defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Csikszereda scores more

48%

level

26%

Unirea Slobozia scores more

25%

Csikszereda at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Csikszereda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff