Csikszereda 0–0 CSA Steaua Bucureşti

Csikszereda

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

4/3/2025

Liga II · Promotion Round - 2Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Csikszereda40%

×Draw27%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CsikszeredaExpected goals in this matchCSA Steaua Bucureşti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.21

Csikszereda

1.36

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

1.21

Csikszereda creates 12% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 72 away

1.55

creates per match

1.46

0.96

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Csikszereda

1.55

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

1.46

allows per match

Csikszereda

0.96

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Csikszereda+0.00on par

CSA Steaua Bucureşti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csikszereda ↓

CSA Steaua Bucureşti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Csikszereda or draw

67%

Csikszereda or CSA Steaua Bucureşti

73%

Draw or CSA Steaua Bucureşti

60%

Winning margin

Csikszereda wins by 2+

19%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Csikszereda 1+ goals

74%

Csikszereda 2+ goals

39%

Csikszereda 3+ goals

16%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti 1+ goals

70%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti 2+ goals

34%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Csikszereda (draw refunded)

55%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csikszereda at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.96 · 82 matches

CSA Steaua Bucureşti away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.17 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csikszereda attack 1.55 + CSA Steaua Bucureşti defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.36

CSA Steaua Bucureşti attack 1.46 + Csikszereda defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Csikszereda scores more

40%

level

27%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti scores more

33%

Csikszereda at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Csikszereda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff