CSA Steaua Bucureşti 0–0 Csikszereda

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Csikszereda

4/30/2025

Liga II · Promotion Round - 7Stadionul Steaua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

CSA Steaua Bucureşti47%

×Draw26%

Csikszereda27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSA Steaua BucureştiExpected goals in this matchCsikszereda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.04

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

1.46

Csikszereda

1.04

CSA Steaua Bucureşti creates 40% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 81 away

1.75

creates per match

1.11

0.97

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

1.75

Csikszereda

1.11

allows per match

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

0.97

Csikszereda

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSA Steaua Bucureşti+0.00on par

Csikszereda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA Steaua Bucureşti ↓

Csikszereda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

CSA Steaua Bucureşti or draw

73%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti or Csikszereda

74%

Draw or Csikszereda

53%

Winning margin

CSA Steaua Bucureşti wins by 2+

23%

Csikszereda wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

CSA Steaua Bucureşti 1+ goals

77%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti 2+ goals

43%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti 3+ goals

18%

Csikszereda 1+ goals

65%

Csikszereda 2+ goals

28%

Csikszereda 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

CSA Steaua Bucureşti (draw refunded)

63%

Csikszereda (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA Steaua Bucureşti at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.97 · 71 matches

Csikszereda away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA Steaua Bucureşti attack 1.75 + Csikszereda defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.46

Csikszereda attack 1.11 + CSA Steaua Bucureşti defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

CSA Steaua Bucureşti scores more

47%

level

26%

Csikszereda scores more

27%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CSA Steaua Bucureşti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff