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Csikszereda MC W vs Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Csikszereda MC W
Csikszereda MC W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
5/3/2025Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Championship Round - 9Sport-Park Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Csikszereda MC W54%
×Draw20%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Csikszereda MC W
2.29
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
1.55

Csikszereda MC W creates 48% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 39 away

creates per match

Csikszereda MC W
3.22
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
1.92

allows per match

Csikszereda MC W
1.18
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
1.36

finishing

Csikszereda MC W+0.00on par
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csikszereda MC W ↓

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Csikszereda MC W or draw
74%
Csikszereda MC W or Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
80%
Draw or Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
46%

Winning margin

Csikszereda MC W wins by 2+
33%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Csikszereda MC W 1+ goals
90%
Csikszereda MC W 2+ goals
66%
Csikszereda MC W 3+ goals
40%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 1+ goals
79%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 2+ goals
46%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Csikszereda MC W (draw refunded)
68%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csikszereda MC W at home — creates 3.22, concedes 1.18 · 50 matches

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.36 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csikszereda MC W attack 3.22 + Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 2.29

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W attack 1.92 + Csikszereda MC W defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Csikszereda MC W scores more
54%
level
20%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W scores more
26%

Csikszereda MC W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Csikszereda MC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: Csikszereda MC W 2–0 Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W

Csikszereda MC W beat Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 2-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Sport-Park Arena in Miercurea Ciuc.