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Csikszereda MC W vs Banat Girls W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Csikszereda MC W
Csikszereda MC W
FT
3 – 0
Banat Girls W
Banat Girls W
4/22/2023Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Championship Round - 5Sport-Park Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Csikszereda MC W72%
×Draw15%
Banat Girls W13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Csikszereda MC W
3.00
Banat Girls W
1.24

Csikszereda MC W creates 142% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 43 away

creates per match

Csikszereda MC W
3.22
Banat Girls W
1.30

allows per match

Csikszereda MC W
1.18
Banat Girls W
2.77

finishing

Csikszereda MC W+0.00on par
Banat Girls W+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csikszereda MC W ↓

Banat Girls W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Csikszereda MC W or draw
87%
Csikszereda MC W or Banat Girls W
85%
Draw or Banat Girls W
28%

Winning margin

Csikszereda MC W wins by 2+
52%
Banat Girls W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Csikszereda MC W 1+ goals
95%
Csikszereda MC W 2+ goals
79%
Csikszereda MC W 3+ goals
56%
Banat Girls W 1+ goals
71%
Banat Girls W 2+ goals
35%
Banat Girls W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Csikszereda MC W (draw refunded)
85%
Banat Girls W (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csikszereda MC W at home — creates 3.22, concedes 1.18 · 50 matches

Banat Girls W away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.77 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csikszereda MC W attack 3.22 + Banat Girls W defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 3.00

Banat Girls W attack 1.30 + Csikszereda MC W defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Csikszereda MC W scores more
72%
level
15%
Banat Girls W scores more
13%

Csikszereda MC W at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Csikszereda MC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Csikszereda MC W vs Banat Girls W

Csikszereda MC W beat Banat Girls W 3-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Sport-Park Arena in Miercurea Ciuc.