Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Banat Girls W vs Csikszereda MC W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Banat Girls W
Banat Girls W
FT
2 – 2
Csikszereda MC W
Csikszereda MC W
5/28/2023Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Championship Round - 10Stadionul Comunal Comloșu Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Banat Girls W36%
×Draw22%
Csikszereda MC W43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banat Girls W
1.78
Csikszereda MC W
1.96

Csikszereda MC W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 49 away

creates per match

Banat Girls W
2.24
Csikszereda MC W
1.63

allows per match

Banat Girls W
2.29
Csikszereda MC W
1.31

finishing

Banat Girls W+0.00on par
Csikszereda MC W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banat Girls W ↓

Csikszereda MC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Banat Girls W or draw
57%
Banat Girls W or Csikszereda MC W
78%
Draw or Csikszereda MC W
64%

Winning margin

Banat Girls W wins by 2+
18%
Csikszereda MC W wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Banat Girls W 1+ goals
83%
Banat Girls W 2+ goals
53%
Banat Girls W 3+ goals
26%
Csikszereda MC W 1+ goals
86%
Csikszereda MC W 2+ goals
58%
Csikszereda MC W 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Banat Girls W (draw refunded)
46%
Csikszereda MC W (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banat Girls W at home — creates 2.24, concedes 2.29 · 45 matches

Csikszereda MC W away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.31 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banat Girls W attack 2.24 + Csikszereda MC W defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.78

Csikszereda MC W attack 1.63 + Banat Girls W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Banat Girls W scores more
36%
level
22%
Csikszereda MC W scores more
43%

Csikszereda MC W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Csikszereda MC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Banat Girls W vs Csikszereda MC W

Banat Girls W and Csikszereda MC W drew 2-2 in Liga 1 Feminin on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Comunal Comloșu Mare in Comloșu Mare.