CSA 1–1 Botafogo PB: Result & Stats | Serie C

CSA

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Botafogo PB

Tiago Marques 75' (pen)

Lenon 90' (pen)

6/15/2024

Serie C · Round 9Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

CSA40%

×Draw29%

Botafogo PB31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSAExpected goals in this matchBotafogo PB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.98

CSA

1.17

Botafogo PB

0.98

CSA creates 19% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 88 away

1.23

creates per match

0.86

1.10

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

CSA

1.23

Botafogo PB

0.86

allows per match

CSA

1.10

Botafogo PB

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSA+0.00on par

Botafogo PB+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA ↓

Botafogo PB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

CSA or draw

69%

CSA or Botafogo PB

71%

Draw or Botafogo PB

60%

Winning margin

CSA wins by 2+

17%

Botafogo PB wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

CSA 1+ goals

69%

CSA 2+ goals

33%

CSA 3+ goals

11%

Botafogo PB 1+ goals

62%

Botafogo PB 2+ goals

26%

Botafogo PB 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

CSA (draw refunded)

57%

Botafogo PB (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Botafogo PB away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.10 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA attack 1.23 + Botafogo PB defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Botafogo PB attack 0.86 + CSA defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

CSA scores more

40%

level

29%

Botafogo PB scores more

31%

CSA at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Gabriel Lima

41'

Gustavo Nicola

45+1'

Roberto

46'

Jô← Gabriel Lima

46'

Lucas Gonçalves← Bruno Leite

46'

Warley← Will Viana

55'

Pipico

62'

Dudu Miraíma← Gustavinho

62'

Vitor Leque← Brayann

71'

Erik← Roberto

71'

Paulo César← Richard Rodrigues

75'

Gustavo Poffo← Pipico

75'

Joãozinho← Gama

75'

Tiago MarquesPenalty

80'

Almir Luan← Gustavo Nicola

83'

Gustavo Poffo

90'

LenonPenalty

CSA4-2-3-1

Botafogo4-2-3-1

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Higo Magalhães

62'▲Dudu Miraíma←▼Gustavinho

62'▲Vitor Leque←▼Brayann

71'▲Erik←▼Roberto

71'▲Paulo César←▼Richard Rodrigues

80'▲Almir Luan←▼Gustavo Nicola

CSA substitutes

MiraímaLequeErikCésarLuanThomazellaAllysonFoguinhoTanqueFavelaRaphinhaRoger

Manager: Evaristo Piza

46'▲Jô←▼Gabriel Lima

46'▲Lucas Gonçalves←▼Bruno Leite

46'▲Warley←▼Will Viana

75'▲Gustavo Poffo←▼Pipico

75'▲Joãozinho←▼Gama

Botafogo PB substitutes

JôGonçalvesWarleyPoffoJoãozinhoAlanDouglasErickBalardinPaulinhoIvoFurlan

Serie C: CSA 1–1 Botafogo PB

CSA and Botafogo PB drew 1-1 in Serie C on June 15, 2024.

Goals: Tiago Marques (75' pen), Lenon (90' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Rei Pelé in Maceió, Alagoas.

CSA vs Botafogo PB — Serie C 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: CSA 1–1 Botafogo PB