CSA 3–0 Botafogo PB: Result & Stats

CSA

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Botafogo PB

1/30/2022

Copa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 2Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

CSA50%

×Draw27%

Botafogo PB23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSAExpected goals in this matchBotafogo PB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.89

CSA

1.44

Botafogo PB

0.89

CSA creates 62% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 23 away

1.70

creates per match

0.96

0.81

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

CSA

1.70

Botafogo PB

0.96

allows per match

CSA

0.81

Botafogo PB

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSA+0.00on par

Botafogo PB+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA ↓

Botafogo PB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CSA or draw

77%

CSA or Botafogo PB

73%

Draw or Botafogo PB

50%

Winning margin

CSA wins by 2+

25%

Botafogo PB wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

CSA 1+ goals

76%

CSA 2+ goals

42%

CSA 3+ goals

18%

Botafogo PB 1+ goals

59%

Botafogo PB 2+ goals

22%

Botafogo PB 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

CSA (draw refunded)

68%

Botafogo PB (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.81 · 27 matches

Botafogo PB away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA attack 1.70 + Botafogo PB defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.44

Botafogo PB attack 0.96 + CSA defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CSA scores more

50%

level

27%

Botafogo PB scores more

23%

CSA at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff