CS Universitatea Craiova 3–1 FC Botosani

CS Universitatea Craiova

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

FC Botosani

B. Vătăjelu 90+3'

A. Cicâldău 28' (pen)

V. Mihăilă 20'

R. Ofosu 39'

12/5/2019

Liga I · Round 19Stadionul Ion Oblemenco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

CS Universitatea Craiova64%

×Draw19%

FC Botosani17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS Universitatea CraiovaExpected goals in this matchFC Botosani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.11

CS Universitatea Craiova

2.33

FC Botosani

1.11

CS Universitatea Craiova creates 110% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

2.08

creates per match

1.07

1.16

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

CS Universitatea Craiova

2.08

FC Botosani

1.07

allows per match

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.16

FC Botosani

2.57

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

CS Universitatea Craiova-0.38scores less

FC Botosani-0.47scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Universitatea Craiova ↓

FC Botosani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

CS Universitatea Craiova or draw

83%

CS Universitatea Craiova or FC Botosani

81%

Draw or FC Botosani

36%

Winning margin

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

42%

FC Botosani wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

90%

CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

67%

CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

41%

FC Botosani 1+ goals

67%

FC Botosani 2+ goals

30%

FC Botosani 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

79%

FC Botosani (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.16 · 10 matches

FC Botosani away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.57 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 2.08 + FC Botosani defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.33

FC Botosani attack 1.07 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more

64%

level

19%

FC Botosani scores more

17%

CS Universitatea Craiova at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "CS Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

V. Mihăilă↳ G. Zakarić

28'

A. CicâldăuPenalty

39'

41'

45'

53'

56'

H. Keyta← R. Andronic

58'

Goran Zakarić

64'

A. Mateiu← C. Bărbuţ

71'

A. Ivanov← K. Qaka

74'

B. Cascini← M. Ebenhofer

81'

Mihai Bălașa

84'

G. Cîmpanu← R. Ofosu

86'

B. Vătăjelu← A. Cicâldău

90+3'

B. Vătăjelu↳ A. Ivanov

Possession

Shots

Statistics

CSFC

Overview

57%Possession43%

9Total Shots10

3Corners6

21Fouls26

Shots

9Total Shots10

6On Target6

3Off Target4

Passing

57%Possession43%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

21Fouls26

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

4Offsides0