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CS Universitatea Craiova vs FC Botosani — Liga I 2026

CS Universitatea Craiova
CS Universitatea Craiova
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
FC Botosani
FC Botosani
8/3/2018Liga ILiga I · Round 3Stadionul Ion Oblemenco (Craiova)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

CS Universitatea Craiova60%
×Draw21%
FC Botosani19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Universitatea Craiova
2.12
FC Botosani
1.10

CS Universitatea Craiova creates 93% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

creates per match

CS Universitatea Craiova
2.00
FC Botosani
1.03

allows per match

CS Universitatea Craiova
1.17
FC Botosani
2.24

finishing

CS Universitatea Craiova-0.60scores less
FC Botosani-0.17scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Universitatea Craiova ↓

FC Botosani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

CS Universitatea Craiova or draw
81%
CS Universitatea Craiova or FC Botosani
79%
Draw or FC Botosani
40%

Winning margin

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
37%
FC Botosani wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
88%
CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
62%
CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
35%
FC Botosani 1+ goals
67%
FC Botosani 2+ goals
30%
FC Botosani 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
76%
FC Botosani (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 15 matches

FC Botosani away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.24 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 2.00 + FC Botosani defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.12

FC Botosani attack 1.03 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more
60%
level
21%
FC Botosani scores more
19%

CS Universitatea Craiova at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "CS Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: CS Universitatea Craiova 2–2 FC Botosani

CS Universitatea Craiova and FC Botosani drew 2-2 in Liga I on August 3, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Ion Oblemenco (Craiova).