CS Universitatea Craiova vs Arges Pitesti — Liga I 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 81+ matches
CS Universitatea Craiova52%
Arges Pitesti21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
CS Universitatea Craiova creates 78% more chances
Season form · 156 home / 81 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under59
- Over41
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
CS Universitatea Craiova ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
CS Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.81 · 156 matches
Arges Pitesti away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.32 · 81 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
CS Universitatea Craiova attack 1.63 + Arges Pitesti defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.48
Arges Pitesti attack 0.85 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.83
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
CS Universitatea Craiova at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "CS Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Shots
Statistics
CS Universitatea Craiova host Arges Pitesti on Friday, 11 March 2022 at 18:30. The match is part of the Liga I 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: CS Universitatea Craiova vs Arges Pitesti
CS Universitatea Craiova beat Arges Pitesti 3-0 in Liga I on March 11, 2022.
Goals: Gustavo Vagenin (22'), A. Roguljić (83'), Ș. Baiaram (84').
The match was played at Complex Sportiv Craiova in Craiova.