CS Universitatea Craiova 1–1 Arges Pitesti

CS Universitatea Craiova

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Arges Pitesti

I. Mamut 64'

C. Malele 67'

1/29/2021

Liga I · Round 20Stadionul Ion Oblemenco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

CS Universitatea Craiova52%

×Draw26%

Arges Pitesti21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS Universitatea CraiovaExpected goals in this matchArges Pitesti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.83

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.48

Arges Pitesti

0.83

CS Universitatea Craiova creates 78% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 81 away

1.63

creates per match

0.85

0.82

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.63

Arges Pitesti

0.85

allows per match

CS Universitatea Craiova

0.82

Arges Pitesti

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Arges Pitesti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Universitatea Craiova ↓

Arges Pitesti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

CS Universitatea Craiova or draw

79%

CS Universitatea Craiova or Arges Pitesti

74%

Draw or Arges Pitesti

48%

Winning margin

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

27%

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

77%

CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

43%

CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

19%

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals

56%

Arges Pitesti 2+ goals

20%

Arges Pitesti 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

71%

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.82 · 157 matches

Arges Pitesti away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.32 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 1.63 + Arges Pitesti defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.48

Arges Pitesti attack 0.85 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more

52%

level

26%

Arges Pitesti scores more

21%

CS Universitatea Craiova at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CS Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

O. Bic← V. Screciu

40'

G. Turda← S. Deslandes

46'

I. Mamut← C. Bărbuț

51'

B. Vătăjelu← R. Ofosu

64'

I. Mamut↳ M. Constantin

67'

C. Malele↳ D. Meza Colli

83'

Cristian Dumitru

83'

Pablo de Lucas← A. Palić

83'

84'

84'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

CSArges

Overview

63%Possession37%

12Total Shots5

5Corners3

18Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots5

3On Target3

9Off Target2

Passing

63%Possession37%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls13

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2