CS Universitatea Craiova 1–0 AFC Hermannstadt

CS Universitatea Craiova

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

AFC Hermannstadt

A. Cicâldău 33'

2/19/2021

Liga I · Round 24Stadionul Ion Oblemenco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

CS Universitatea Craiova53%

×Draw26%

AFC Hermannstadt21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS Universitatea CraiovaExpected goals in this matchAFC Hermannstadt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.85

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.52

AFC Hermannstadt

0.85

CS Universitatea Craiova creates 79% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 138 away

1.63

creates per match

0.90

0.81

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.63

AFC Hermannstadt

0.90

allows per match

CS Universitatea Craiova

0.81

AFC Hermannstadt

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

AFC Hermannstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Universitatea Craiova ↓

AFC Hermannstadt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CS Universitatea Craiova or draw

79%

CS Universitatea Craiova or AFC Hermannstadt

74%

Draw or AFC Hermannstadt

47%

Winning margin

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

27%

AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

78%

CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

45%

CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

20%

AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals

57%

AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals

21%

AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

72%

AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.81 · 156 matches

AFC Hermannstadt away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.42 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 1.63 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.52

AFC Hermannstadt attack 0.90 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more

53%

level

26%

AFC Hermannstadt scores more

21%

CS Universitatea Craiova at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "CS Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

33'

35'

54'

61'

A. Sîntean← D. Bagarić

61'

R. Dâlbea← B. Addae

64'

Patricio Matricardi

68'

M. Căpățînă← G. Cîmpanu

78'

Juan Cámara← Ș. Baiaram

78'

V. Screciu← D. Nistor

81'

G. Karanović← Aias Aosman

81'

S. Elbers← C. Belu

90+2'

I. Mamut← A. Ivan

90+2'

O. Bic← A. Mateiu

Possession

Shots

Statistics

CSAFC

Overview

65%Possession35%

12Total Shots5

2Corners3

5Fouls18

Shots

12Total Shots5

7On Target4

5Off Target1

Passing

65%Possession35%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

5Fouls18

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1