CS Mioveni 0–1 Universitatea Craiova

CS Mioveni

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Universitatea Craiova

G. Cîmpanu 41'

12/12/2022

Liga I · Round 20Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

CS Mioveni26%

×Draw30%

Universitatea Craiova44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS MioveniExpected goals in this matchUniversitatea Craiova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

1.21

CS Mioveni

0.86

Universitatea Craiova

1.21

Universitatea Craiova creates 41% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 155 away

0.60

creates per match

1.38

1.05

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

CS Mioveni

0.60

Universitatea Craiova

1.38

allows per match

CS Mioveni

1.05

Universitatea Craiova

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Mioveni+0.00on par

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Mioveni ↓

Universitatea Craiova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–115%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

CS Mioveni or draw

56%

CS Mioveni or Universitatea Craiova

70%

Draw or Universitatea Craiova

74%

Winning margin

CS Mioveni wins by 2+

9%

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

CS Mioveni 1+ goals

58%

CS Mioveni 2+ goals

21%

CS Mioveni 3+ goals

6%

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

70%

Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

34%

Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

CS Mioveni (draw refunded)

37%

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Mioveni at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.05 · 40 matches

Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Mioveni attack 0.60 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.86

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + CS Mioveni defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CS Mioveni scores more

26%

level

30%

Universitatea Craiova scores more

44%

Universitatea Craiova at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

Dorinel Oancea

24'

Jovan Marković

41'

G. Cîmpanu↳ Rivaldinho

52'

Cristian Mihai Capatina

61'

M. Lixandru← D. Toma

61'

I. Burnea← I. Rădescu

72'

B. Krasniqi← N. Cârnat

72'

R. Gutea← R. Trif

78'

M. Danciu← J. Marković

82'

V. Găman← G. Cîmpanu

90'

V. Coșereanu← L. Antal

90+3'

D. Sala← Rivaldinho

Possession

Shots

Statistics

CSUniversitatea

Overview

45%Possession55%

6Total Shots14

0Corners5

11Fouls11

Shots

6Total Shots14

1On Target3

4Off Target6

1Blocked5

Passing

45%Possession55%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides3