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CS Luceafarul Oradea vs Arges Pitesti — Liga II 2018

CS Luceafarul Oradea
CS Luceafarul Oradea
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
4/6/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 28Baza Sportivă Luceafărul Felix (Sânmartin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CS Luceafarul Oradea51%
×Draw26%
Arges Pitesti23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Luceafarul Oradea
1.54
Arges Pitesti
0.94

CS Luceafarul Oradea creates 64% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 62 away

creates per match

CS Luceafarul Oradea
2.16
Arges Pitesti
1.03

allows per match

CS Luceafarul Oradea
0.84
Arges Pitesti
0.92

finishing

CS Luceafarul Oradea+0.00on par
Arges Pitesti+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Luceafarul Oradea ↓

Arges Pitesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

CS Luceafarul Oradea or draw
77%
CS Luceafarul Oradea or Arges Pitesti
74%
Draw or Arges Pitesti
49%

Winning margin

CS Luceafarul Oradea wins by 2+
26%
Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CS Luceafarul Oradea 1+ goals
79%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 2+ goals
45%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 3+ goals
20%
Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
61%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
24%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CS Luceafarul Oradea (draw refunded)
69%
Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Luceafarul Oradea at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Arges Pitesti away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.92 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Luceafarul Oradea attack 2.16 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.54

Arges Pitesti attack 1.03 + CS Luceafarul Oradea defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

CS Luceafarul Oradea scores more
51%
level
26%
Arges Pitesti scores more
23%

CS Luceafarul Oradea at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "CS Luceafarul Oradea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Luceafarul Oradea vs Arges Pitesti

Arges Pitesti beat CS Luceafarul Oradea 2-1 in Liga II on April 6, 2019.

The match was played at Baza Sportivă Luceafărul Felix (Sânmartin).