Arges Pitesti 3–0 CS Luceafarul Oradea

Arges Pitesti

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

CS Luceafarul Oradea

9/30/2018

Liga II · Round 9Stadionul Municipal Nicolae Dobrin (Piteşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Arges Pitesti65%

×Draw21%

CS Luceafarul Oradea14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arges PitestiExpected goals in this matchCS Luceafarul Oradea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.78

Arges Pitesti

1.94

CS Luceafarul Oradea

0.78

Arges Pitesti creates 149% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 19 away

1.61

creates per match

0.84

0.73

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Arges Pitesti

1.61

CS Luceafarul Oradea

0.84

allows per match

Arges Pitesti

0.73

CS Luceafarul Oradea

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arges Pitesti+0.00on par

CS Luceafarul Oradea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

CS Luceafarul Oradea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw

86%

Arges Pitesti or CS Luceafarul Oradea

79%

Draw or CS Luceafarul Oradea

35%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+

39%

CS Luceafarul Oradea wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals

86%

Arges Pitesti 2+ goals

58%

Arges Pitesti 3+ goals

30%

CS Luceafarul Oradea 1+ goals

54%

CS Luceafarul Oradea 2+ goals

18%

CS Luceafarul Oradea 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)

82%

CS Luceafarul Oradea (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.73 · 59 matches

CS Luceafarul Oradea away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.61 + CS Luceafarul Oradea defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.94

CS Luceafarul Oradea attack 0.84 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more

65%

level

21%

CS Luceafarul Oradea scores more

14%

Arges Pitesti at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff