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CS Luceafarul Oradea vs Aerostar Bacau — Liga II 2018

CS Luceafarul Oradea
CS Luceafarul Oradea
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Aerostar Bacau
Aerostar Bacau
3/23/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 26Baza Sportivă Luceafărul Felix (Sânmartin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CS Luceafarul Oradea66%
×Draw19%
Aerostar Bacau14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Luceafarul Oradea
2.20
Aerostar Bacau
0.91

CS Luceafarul Oradea creates 142% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 31 away

creates per match

CS Luceafarul Oradea
2.16
Aerostar Bacau
0.97

allows per match

CS Luceafarul Oradea
0.84
Aerostar Bacau
2.23

finishing

CS Luceafarul Oradea+0.00on par
Aerostar Bacau+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Luceafarul Oradea ↓

Aerostar Bacau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

CS Luceafarul Oradea or draw
86%
CS Luceafarul Oradea or Aerostar Bacau
81%
Draw or Aerostar Bacau
34%

Winning margin

CS Luceafarul Oradea wins by 2+
43%
Aerostar Bacau wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

CS Luceafarul Oradea 1+ goals
89%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 2+ goals
64%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 3+ goals
37%
Aerostar Bacau 1+ goals
60%
Aerostar Bacau 2+ goals
23%
Aerostar Bacau 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CS Luceafarul Oradea (draw refunded)
82%
Aerostar Bacau (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Luceafarul Oradea at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Aerostar Bacau away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Luceafarul Oradea attack 2.16 + Aerostar Bacau defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.20

Aerostar Bacau attack 0.97 + CS Luceafarul Oradea defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

CS Luceafarul Oradea scores more
66%
level
19%
Aerostar Bacau scores more
14%

CS Luceafarul Oradea at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "CS Luceafarul Oradea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Luceafarul Oradea vs Aerostar Bacau

CS Luceafarul Oradea beat Aerostar Bacau 4-0 in Liga II on March 23, 2019.

The match was played at Baza Sportivă Luceafărul Felix (Sânmartin).